Forecasting the election using simulations

Here’s a cool site that forecasts election results using regression and simulation techniques. Note that many of the percentages you will see on the site are probabilities of winning, rather than percentages of the vote. The site is http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

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One Response to “Forecasting the election using simulations”

  1. STEVE BORGATTI Says:

    Just a post-election note on the accuracy of the predictions by fivethirtyeight.com.

    ELECTORAL VOTES
    Predicted: 348.6
    Actual: 364 (as of 6 Nov)

    POPULAR VOTE
    Predicted: 52.3%(Dem) 46.2% (Rep)
    Actual: 52% (Dem) 46% (Rep)

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